Measuring and analyzing the determinants of poverty in developing countries during the period 1990-2020 using PANEL models

Abstract

The study aims to measure and analyze the determinants of poverty in developing countries during the period 1990-2020, using appropriate standard models to analyze panel data. The model includes several macroeconomic variables, namely public spending, economic growth rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and population growth rate. The study assumes an inverse relationship, with statistical significance, between the poverty rate and each public spending and economic growth rate. In contrast, a direct relationship is assumed between poverty and inflation, unemployment, and population growth rates. The study adopts a deductive approach based on the descriptive analytical method, drawing on economic theories and previous studies on the theoretical side. On the applied side, a quantitative method is employed, focusing on economic measurement. The findings reveal an inverse and significant relationship between the poverty rate and public spending, while the relationship is insignificant in the case of the economic growth rate. Furthermore, a direct and significant relationship is observed between poverty, inflation, and unemployment rates. Lastly, an inverse and significant relationship is identified between poverty and population growth rates. In conclusion, the study provides a set of recommendations, the most important of which is to increase public spending to support the poor through the provision of social services such as education, health, and potable water. This is recognized as one of the most influential factors in poverty reduction, along with supporting small. projects and creating a favoraeble economic environment to attract labour and reduce unemployment rates, ultimately leading to a decrease in poverty rates.