The Spatial Relationship between Soil Properties and the Manifestations of Desertification in Erbil Governorate and Their Effect on Agricultural Production (1995–2025)

Abstract

Desertification is one of the most serious contemporary environmental challenges, as degradation of soil properties (physical and chemical) reduces productive capacity and disrupts ecological balance. This study explores the spatial relationship between soil properties and desertification in Erbil Governorate during 1995–2025. Remote sensing and GIS were used, applying a Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) model via Model Builder. Five main factors were evaluated: precipitation rate, temperature, soil type, slope, and vegetation density. These factors were integrated using the Weighted Overlay tool to identify areas at risk of desertification. The results revealed clear spatial variation. The northern and eastern areas are more resistant to desertification due to the high moisture and organic matter content of their soils. Conversely, the undulating southern area suffers from moderate to severe desertification due to high salinity and weak soil structure. Areas with moderate desertification account for approximately 45.60% of the governorate, while areas with severe desertification account for 16.0%, showing a sharp decline in agricultural production. Human factors, including poor management, excessive irrigation, and urban expansion, have interacted with climatic factors, specifically drought and rising temperatures, to exacerbate the phenomenon, threatening the region's economic development. The study confirms the effectiveness of GIS techniques in accurately monitoring desertification dynamics, underlining the need to adopt them as an essential instrument for sustainable environmental management plans and for protecting food security in the governorate.